Video guide to the "Rechka" route (Ilyushenko, ice 4B) on Peak Baychechekey by Dima Pavlenko. Captured work on the key wall.

Types of Risks and Their Characteristics

For each type of human activity, a specific definition of risk can be derived. This definition also depends on the angle from which the risk is studied. In our case, for alpinism and tourism, the risks we will consider represent a condition that, if it occurs, has the potential to negatively impact the group. The difference here from more "classical" schemes is that we do not consider theoretical models but rather rely on practical ones. Thus, we take as an axiom that conditions capable of having a negative impact arise inevitably and on a constant basis. Firstly, many of them we create consciously and purposefully by setting certain frameworks and rules for navigating the route. Secondly, we are not capable of excluding all negative conditions because some of them arise independently of us. Thirdly, we almost never consider risks as conditions that can also have a positive impact on the group, as our research starts from accident rates rather than from accident-free conditions. In simple terms, our risks are "before something happens." When we work with risks as uncertain conditions, the event has not yet occurred. It is potential and will happen only with a certain degree of probability, high or low. Nevertheless, since we are considering the scheme of risks from a practical perspective, the probability itself in a mathematical sense is not of interest to us because it is not important. We suffer equally from an event that occurred with a "probability of 100%" and one with a "probability of 1%," if the impact of these events is the same. So, below we will structurally examine the risks that represent uncertain conditions capable of having a negative impact.

Route Description

From the Myrdı bivouac, ascend the grassy slopes towards the lower part of the eastern ridge of Pyramida. Then turn right onto the large, wide slopes cut by a chain of couloirs and scree, rising towards the terminal moraine of the Pyramida glacier. Reach the glacier via the large, long moraine. Continue straight up towards the clearly visible, rightmost narrow saddle on the Pyramida ridge. The ridge connects to the summit of Ak-bashi to the right. The ascent to the saddle follows a snowy slope with a steepness of up to 40°, then a narrow 100-meter couloir (ice in the second half of summer). From the saddle, descend 50 m to the other side and follow a wide, 400-meter scree shelf that wraps around the base of Pyramida from the west, approaching a large rocky outcrop. Ascend the outcrop upwards and to the left, then move onto inclined shelves above a white quartz vein (protection!). Then bypass the first rocky prominence and move towards the wedge-shaped rock protruding from the second rocky prominence on the ridge. Ascend to the wedge-shaped rock via broken rocks, then follow the inner angle - a couloir (water!) - to reach the upper scree slopes above the wall via a small R6 rock wall. Follow the scree slopes and small ridges to reach the main ridge of the summit at a large, horizontally lying slab. From here, move left and down into a small depression, then ascend to the summit via yellow rocks. 6 hours from the bivouac. Descent from the summit follows the "Pyramida via the Southeast Ridge" route.

• Departure time from the bivouac should be no later than 5 am.
• On the eve of the ascent day, mark the path to the terminal moraine of the Pyramida glacier.

In the previous chapters, we examined the combination of processes that can lead to events on a route. We found that risks are at the root of everything. Risks represent a condition that, if it occurs, has the potential to negatively impact a group. Risks are "before the fact." When we work with risks as uncertain conditions, the event has not yet occurred. Our actions and decisions on the route are always accompanied by risks. They either generate them or, conversely, reduce the likelihood of an event by eliminating the conditions for their occurrence. In most cases, an accident is either caused or accompanied by our actions and decisions - risks. However, our actions and decisions can also prevent an accident or reduce its severity. The nuance is that the negativity of a decision or action is only known after the fact - and often the mistake is not acknowledged; good decisions and actions, on the other hand, mostly go unnoticed because the event did not occur. This contradiction affects the further application of experience. Solely positive experience does not provide an understanding of the boundaries within which decisions and actions are most effective. Nevertheless, negative experience without recognition and analysis of mistakes leads to a similar result. In this regard, the described version of negative experience is much more dangerous than solely positive experience. Thus, risks create conditions for events to occur. Risks come from both the team itself - generated risks, and from the environment - inherent risks. An event is a direct negative impact on the group. That is, when a storm tears a tent, an event occurs, resulting from an environmental factor. The death of one of the participants due to hypothermia in a torn tent is another event. A storm here represents an environmental phenomenon; it becomes an event when it transfers the system to a worse state.

Video guide to Route 3A via the west ridge to Peak Ratzek by Dima Pavlenko.

Video guide to the Gavrilov's route (4A) on peak Korona by Dima Pavlenko.

What is "adaptation energy" according to Selye

Hans Selye, a smart guy who came up with the concept of stress, introduced the idea of adaptation energy. Its concept looks like the following:

• it's not calories and not ATP, but a conditional resource of the body that is spent on adaptation to any stress - cold, hunger, training, infections, mental stress;
• this resource is finite: the more we spend it without recovery, the closer we are to the stage of exhaustion. In the model of adaptation energy, the following stages can be distinguished:

1. Alarm stage - the body mobilizes, but at the same time spends part of the adaptation energy.
2. Stage of resistance - the body has adapted and maintains a new level of load.
3. Stage of exhaustion - the resource is depleted, and the system starts to fall apart (diseases, overtraining, burnout).

Video guide for the 2Б route via the north ridge to Razek Peak by Dima Pavlenko.

Video guide for Mikhailov's route (5B, rock climbing) on Peak Boks by Dima Pavlenko.

In the article continuing the topic of risks, we will examine a more complex danger equation. Based on it, we will evaluate common judgments related to sporting and commercial routes. The article is more complex than the previous ones and is intended for an audience that does not find all the answers in guidelines and rules. It continues the ideology of the previous articles but provides a more detailed answer to the question of why we still get into accidents, even though we seem to be doing everything correctly and according to official guidelines. In the previous chapter, we analyzed real examples of event loops - perhaps the most terrifying phenomenon on a route, when a series of unfortunate decisions traps a group in a loop where each subsequent step leads to a depletion of resources, and after a qualitative reduction, the participants perish. In two of the three cases we analyzed, the group's experience significantly exceeded the complexity of the declared route. As harsh as it may sound, these examples divide the audience into two conditional and polar categories. The first category believes that the events of the loops were obvious from the start and that they can avoid similar situations on their routes. The other half, on the other hand, understands that we are not always able to control the situation, especially in large groups. The division I mentioned does not depend on the experience of hiking and climbing, in terms of their quantity and quality. In this article, we will examine in detail why this is the case. However, the material is intended specifically for the second category - those who want to travel safely in conditions of high uncertainty and do not indulge in illusions of control.

Simplified Risk Equation